Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-statistics-and-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2009/s/s2/b/solution

For one proposal, . Summing gives total acceptance probability . Conditioning on acceptance therefore gives .
The first accepted result has this law too: the probability of failures followed by acceptance at is . Sum the geometric series over to obtain . Positive acceptance probability also proves almost-sure termination.

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