Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-statistics-and-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2010/m/m5/e/ii/solution

For the chain is irreducible, and the normalized stationary distribution in (i) makes it positive recurrent. The mean-return-time formula gives
Here includes a return at time one when the chain stays at zero. This convention is essential. Equivalently the mean hitting time of zero from one is , so a first-step decomposition gives , the same result. For the population remains zero and the next zero is at time one, also agreeing with the formula.

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