Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-short-options-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2017/9/b/ii/solution

If the seed is positive, infection initially increases precisely when
Indeed, . Susceptibility is nonincreasing, so if , the infectious count never starts an increasing phase. When , it grows until , the SIR infection peak, and then declines.
The basic reproduction number compares transmission and removal: one infectious individual generates infections at initial rate and remains infectious for mean time . Their product is the expected number of secondary cases at that susceptible level. Above one, an infectious generation can replace itself with more cases. An exactly zero infectious seed remains zero regardless of this threshold.

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