Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-short-options-paper-shared-by-prelims-and-parts-a-and-b-of-the-physics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2015/s25/2/3/solution

The quadratic coefficient must have units ; the printed makes its term dimensionally incompatible with a radiative flux. Interpret its numerical value as , with . The total imbalance is
A quadrupling gives . The two equilibrium roots are
For positive heat capacity, stability requires . Thus only the lower root is stable. A saddle-node bifurcation occurs at
The logarithmic forcing relation gives . Strict linear stability holds below this concentration on the lower branch; the equality is marginal and is the supremum, not another strictly stable equilibrium. Sustained forcing above it causes warming without a balancing equilibrium in this quadratic model. At such large changes its local feedback expansion can fail, and other physics can intervene; it does not prove unlimited real-planet warming or locate a measured Earth runaway threshold.

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