Quadratic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck state-price density
ID: quadratic-ornstein-uhlenbeck-state-price-density
For an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process under a reference measure, this is a positive supermartingale when . Its short rate is . Conditional zero-coupon bond prices are ratios of the OU second moments of the quadratic factor. The money-market density has diffusion coefficient , bounded by , so the Novikov condition validates the pricing measure. The reference OU dynamics must not be silently treated as the risk-neutral dynamics.
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