 Recursive forecasts of an autoregressive process

For a causal autoregressive process with mean $m$ and innovations orthogonal to the observed past, define ${\hat{X}}_{T,h}=X_{T+h}$ for $h\le 0$ and replace future innovations by zero. The displayed recursion is its best linear prediction from a finite past when at least the last $p$ observations are available. Future innovation sums are orthogonal to those observations, which proves the projection property. Mere white noise does not guarantee that a linear forecast equals a conditional mean: that stronger interpretation requires martingale-difference or independent innovations.