 Sibling IBD ascertainment under multiplicative penetrance

For full siblings in an outbred pedigree, condition on both being affected under multiplicative diallelic penetrance and on residual disease outcomes being independent given their genotypes. The usual Mendelian IBD sharing of full siblings probabilities $(1/4,1/2,1/4)$ are weighted by $p^2{\alpha }^4,p^2{\alpha }^2\beta ,p^2{\beta }^2$, respectively, giving the displayed conditional sharing probabilities. Since $\beta -{\alpha }^2=\varphi (1-\varphi )(\theta -1{)}^2\ge 0$, $z_1\le 1/2$, strictly for a polymorphic locus with a nontrivial effect.