Top-hat parallax posterior under a uniform-volume prior

ID: top-hat-parallax-posterior-under-a-uniform-volume-prior

Let true parallax have prior density proportional to on the valid finite population range, and let an observation supply a constant likelihood on . The normalized posterior is . Integrating gives cumulative probability , hence the displayed median. A fixed half-width equal to half the observed center gives , and . Parameter-dependent error widths require their own normalized likelihood and support.

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