Uniform almost-sure fluid limit of the SI model

ID: uniform-almost-sure-fluid-limit-of-the-si-model

The stochastic SI model with susceptible fraction , initial limit , and total infection rate has deterministic limit
The Poisson time-change representation of a Markov chain writes as its integrated drift minus a centered Poisson error. On its clock is at most . The Poisson maximal concentration bound makes every fixed error tolerance have summable probabilities in , so the Borel-Cantelli lemma gives uniform error decay almost surely. The Gronwall inequality transfers that decay to , because the drift is Lipschitz continuous. The assertion is for fixed finite intervals and does not claim approximation over times growing with .

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