Affine autoregressive process 2026-10-05
An autoregressive process of order one with independent and identically distributed random variables as innovations is an affine process when the innovation exponential moments are finite. Its one-step coefficients are and , where is the innovation cumulant-generating function.
Exponential-affine bond pricing 2026-10-05
If a discrete-time martingale deflator obeys for an affine process , unit zero-coupon bonds have exponential-affine prices. For one-step coefficients , the recursion is , , .
Joint affine transform 2026-10-05
For a scalar discrete-time affine process, the conditional cumulant-generating function of is affine in . Backward effective parameters , give coefficients and .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 211 3 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Assume the innovations are independent of the previous history and have finite exponential moments at every real argument, as required by the finite-valued affine definition. Conditioning on givesHence the autoregressive process of order one is an affine process, withHere and in the remaining parts, an affine process uses a time-homogeneous Markov process: the one-step transform is the same at every time. The displayed definition at time alone would not determine later transitions of an arbitrary time-inhomogeneous Markov process.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 211 3 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Use the time-homogeneous Markov property and define backward effective parameters byConditioning the last exponential factor on replaces by . Repeating the tower property of conditional expectation combines this with the preceding exponent, then with each earlier exponent. The last remaining conditional transform is at time , soThese are finite because the one-step affine process transforms are finite at every real parameter. The argument establishes the entire joint affine transform, including when the coefficients have different signs.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 211 3 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
A unit-face-value zero-coupon bond pays at maturity. The martingale deflator pricing identity isUse the affine process Markov property with respect to the market filtration; if that filtration contains extra predictive information, the natural Markov property alone would not suffice. Part (b), with every future coefficient equal to , gives the exponential-affine form. More explicitly, the exponential-affine bond pricing recursion isIndeed, conditioning the first future step in an -step horizon transforms into . ThereforeThis uses the true martingale deflator pricing identity; a merely local martingale deflator would not by itself justify replacing prices by conditional terminal expectations.