An autoregressive process of order one with independent and identically distributed random variables as innovations is an affine process when the innovation exponential moments are finite. Its one-step coefficients are and , where is the innovation cumulant-generating function.
If a discrete-time martingale deflator obeys for an affine process , unit zero-coupon bonds have exponential-affine prices. For one-step coefficients , the recursion is , , .
Joint affine transform 2026-10-05
For a scalar discrete-time affine process, the conditional cumulant-generating function of is affine in . Backward effective parameters , give coefficients and .
Assume the innovations are independent of the previous history and have finite exponential moments at every real argument, as required by the finite-valued affine definition. Conditioning on gives
Hence the autoregressive process of order one is an affine process, with
Here and in the remaining parts, an affine process uses a time-homogeneous Markov process: the one-step transform is the same at every time. The displayed definition at time alone would not determine later transitions of an arbitrary time-inhomogeneous Markov process.
Use the time-homogeneous Markov property and define backward effective parameters by
Conditioning the last exponential factor on replaces by . Repeating the tower property of conditional expectation combines this with the preceding exponent, then with each earlier exponent. The last remaining conditional transform is at time , so
These are finite because the one-step affine process transforms are finite at every real parameter. The argument establishes the entire joint affine transform, including when the coefficients have different signs.
A unit-face-value zero-coupon bond pays at maturity. The martingale deflator pricing identity is
Use the affine process Markov property with respect to the market filtration; if that filtration contains extra predictive information, the natural Markov property alone would not suffice. Part (b), with every future coefficient equal to , gives the exponential-affine form. More explicitly, the exponential-affine bond pricing recursion is
Indeed, conditioning the first future step in an -step horizon transforms into . Therefore
This uses the true martingale deflator pricing identity; a merely local martingale deflator would not by itself justify replacing prices by conditional terminal expectations.