Equality in Boole's inequality 2026-10-14
For finitely many events, or a countable family with finite sum of individual probabilities, equality in the uncapped union bound holds exactly when every pairwise intersection has probability zero. Equivalently, at most one event occurs almost surely. Pairwise disjoint events give equality, but literal disjointness is stronger than necessary: shared outcomes of probability zero do not change either side. For the capped bound, if the sum exceeds one, equality instead means that the union is an almost sure event; overlap can then have positive probability.
The cap and the disjoint case are both sharp. If the individual probabilities sum to at most one, put the events on separate pieces of a sample space to attain their sum. The twelve-outcome disjoint example does this with two events of probability . If the sum exceeds one, a covering union can attain the cap: on the same twelve-outcome sample space, and have sum and exact union probability one. These are sharpness examples, not an assertion that every overlapping family attains the bound. Positive-probability disjoint events are also not independent events, because their joint probability is zero while the product of their individual probabilities is positive.
Infinitely many heads as a tail event 2026-10-14
On , the event of infinitely many heads isIt says that after every index there is another head. For each , the same intersection can start at , so ; therefore is a tail event. This verifies measurability directly using countable unions and intersections.
A finite prefix admits both infinitely many heads and only finitely many heads
. The two illustrated extensions have the same initial observations. An alternating continuation belongs to the tail event of infinitely many heads; an all-tails continuation does not. Changing the highlighted finite prefix cannot change that infinite property, but it can change the exact first-head time. Details.Assume now that the coordinates are fair independent Bernoulli trials. For fixed , let be the event of at least one head among . Its complement requires tails, soThe last equality follows from continuity of probability. Now , a countable intersection of almost sure events, and hence . This determines which of the two possibilities in Kolmogorov's zero–one law occurs. Equivalently, the Borel-Cantelli second lemma applies to the independent events .
Nevertheless, no finite prefix certifies membership in : every finite record can be extended by all tails or by alternating heads and tails. Under the fair independent model, conditioning on any exact finite prefix leaves , since is independent of the initial sigma-algebra. The excluded all-tails continuation has probability zero, but remains a possible member of the sample space. Logical determination by a finite record and a conclusion holding almost surely are different statements.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 26 3 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
First prove the strong law for Brownian motion, with probability one. For each , the Gaussian tail bound givesBy stationary increments and the Brownian reflection principle, followed by the same tail bound,Both bounds are summable in . The First Borel-Cantelli lemma therefore implies that, eventually, both quantities inside these probability events are at most . For this gives . Intersect over a sequence of positive rational tending to zero to obtain the asserted continuous-time limit.
On this one almost sure event,so for and to for . For each real , the path is eventually strictly on the corresponding side of . HenceThe same event works simultaneously for all levels , giving the requested transience of Brownian motion with drift.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 26 4 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Use the Kolmogorov continuity theorem in its one-parameter form: if on a compact interval a process satisfies for some , it has a modification whose paths are Hölder continuous of every order on that interval.
For Brownian motion, normal increments give, for every ,Every such normal moment is finite. Taking yields , hence any order below . For a prescribed , choose with .
The continuous modification and the given continuous Brownian motion agree at all rational times on one almost sure event; continuity makes them agree everywhere on the interval. To obtain all exponents and all compact intervals simultaneously, apply the theorem to integer intervals and a countable sequence of positive exponents increasing to , then intersect these almost sure events. A bound at exponent implies a bound at on a compact interval. Consequently the Brownian Hölder regularity conclusion iswith finite random constants on one common event of probability one. This uses the usual positive-exponent meaning of Hölder continuity.
Point process Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
A point process records random locations by a random measure that counts them. Examples include arrival times of a queue, positions of stars, and the finite eigenvalue configuration of a random matrix. The count in an observation window is a random variable; its expected value is supplied by the intensity measure of a point process, while its fluctuations and relationships with other windows require more information.
For a precise spatial convention, take with its Borel sigma-algebra and a probability space . A locally finite point process is a measurable function from to the space of locally finite point measures, equipped with the sigma-algebra generated by evaluations for Borel sets . Each realization has the formwhere is finite or countable and repeated locations are allowed; is a Dirac measure. Here a point measure is a counting measure with possible multiplicities, rather than the counting measure of a set of distinct locations.[ref]
Lectures on the Poisson Process by Günter Last and others. Section 2.1, Definition 2.1, printed pp. 10-11: point measures and the sigma-algebra generated by evaluations
Local finiteness means for every bounded Borel set , on a single almost sure event. In it suffices to check the countable collection of balls of integer radius centered at the origin, and this is equivalent to finiteness on every compact set. On a general measurable space there is no notion of boundedness without additional structure: state a metric or an explicit family of observation windows. Another convention on locally compact spaces requires finiteness on compact sets; this need not coincide with finiteness on all bounded sets outside . Local finiteness does not require finitely many points in all of .[ref]
Lectures on the Poisson Process by Günter Last and others. Section 2.4, Definitions 2.11 and 2.13, printed pp. 16-17: bounded-set local finiteness and the countable ball exhaustion
Simple point process 2026-10-14
A point process is simple when, on a single almost sure event, every location has multiplicity at most one. Its realizations are simple locally finite point measures. For instance, is locally finite but not simple: it has four points counted with multiplicity at three distinct locations. Simplicity is a statement about each entire realization. Checking separately for every fixed is insufficient: with having the uniform distribution on passes every such fixed-location check, yet always has a double point.[ref]
Lectures on the Poisson Process by Günter Last and others. Section 6.2, Definitions 6.6 and 6.8, printed p. 49: simple measures and simple point processes
