A strictly increasing confidence transformation preserves metacognitive resolution Created 2026-10-25 Updated 2026-11-05
If confidence is replaced by a strictly increasing function , the attainable threshold partitions have the same ordering and ties. Consequently the type 2 receiver operating characteristic and its area under the ROC curve are unchanged. Equivalently, is invariant. Calibration need not be preserved: adding a positive constant to probabilities within their allowed range changes their absolute values while preserving ranks. A merely nondecreasing transformation can merge distinct reports and requires additional care.
A good receiver operating characteristic rises toward the upper-left corner: many reference-positive loci are detected while few reference-negative loci are accepted. The area under the ROC curve summarizes this discrimination over cutoffs. Higher is better in the stated score direction; perfect separation gives one. The displayed value near 0.86 indicates substantial ranking discrimination against this reference.
The area can also be interpreted as the probability that a randomly chosen positive receives a higher score than a randomly chosen negative, with half credit for ties. It does not select a cutoff or demonstrate that most retained calls are correct: those practical questions also depend on prevalence and the relative costs of errors.
The same illustrative classifier viewed through ROC and precision–recall curves at ten percent prevalence
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