Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 44 1 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let the prior odds be , so . The Type I error gives , while the statistical power gives . By Bayes' theorem,This is a posterior probability of the null, not the false-positive probability conditional on the null. The distinction is the base-rate effect in a positive study.