Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2010 ii Paper 3 27J Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
In the normal form of a Bayesian decision problem, choose a measurable decision rule before seeing the data to minimize the prior Bayes risk . In the extensive form, after observing , choose an action minimizing posterior expected loss. Conditional expectation makes these equivalent, subject to the usual measurable selection conditions. If is the posterior distribution and is the best no-data loss, thenThe inequality follows by ignoring the data.
For a measurable region , posterior or prior expected loss is . It is minimized by including exactly the locations where the integrand is negative; including equality points is harmless. Thus the highest density region is a Bayes act andFor , if the answer is zero. Otherwise put . The optimal interval is , andFor the specified prior and , the prior density is everywhere below , so . Completing the square gives . Its peak is , so a positive-measure region has posterior density strictly above and its optimal expected loss is strictly negative. That loss is independent of its mean, hence independent of . Therefore . Explicitly, with , .