Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 ii Paper 2 26K Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-06
Write . The Bellman equation implies for every available action. Under any competing policy, repeated conditioning givesThe last inequality uses . The monotone convergence theorem now gives , even when . If the comparison is immediate; otherwise the nonnegative conditional bounds justify each finite induction step. This proves Bellman comparison with nonnegative rewards and superunit discount without a vanishing-terminal-term assumption.
For the unit-bet policy in this gambler's ruin problem, put . The value satisfiesThe characteristic equation has the repeated root , so . The boundary values giveTo justify that this finite recurrence solution is the expected reward despite , let be the transition matrix on transient states . The matrix is diagonally similar, with diagonal factors , to the symmetric tridiagonal matrix with off-diagonal entries . Its eigenvalues are , , with absolute value below one. Thus its Neumann series converges and yields exactly the absorbed-payoff expectation and the unique recurrence solution.
When , at wealth bet once and then follow the unit-bet policy. Its expected value is , since . Therefore the unit-bet policy is not optimal.