Heterogeneous treatment effect Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
A heterogeneous treatment effect varies across units or covariate values rather than being constant throughout the population. The conditional average treatment effect describes one common form of this heterogeneity.
The overlap-weighted average treatment effect averages the conditional average treatment effect with weight proportional to , where is the propensity score. It emphasizes covariate strata in which both treatments are plausible.
For fixed , conditional least squares is minimized by
Therefore the remaining objective is
whose normal equation gives
Let
be the conditional average treatment effect. Since is binary, conditional exchangeability implies
and . Hence
Thus is the overlap-weighted average treatment effect. It weights covariate strata by the overlap weight and generally differs from the ordinary ATE when treatment effects are heterogeneous and overlap varies with .
Write and . Conditional on ,
with the analogous control expression
If the propensity model is correct, both ratios are one and these equal and , so their difference is the conditional average treatment effect.