Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 201 3 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Let . Since ,Permuting preserves their joint probability distribution and leaves every generator of unchanged. Therefore, for each bounded -measurable ,This is the symmetry of exchangeable random variables. By the defining identity of conditional expectation, all are equal almost surely. Summing these conditional expectations and using that is -measurable givesHence the conditional expectation of a summand given future partial sums isThe integrability of each justifies every conditional expectation above.