Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 iii Paper 101 3 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The global drift hypothesis as printed is impossible on a finite state space. Indeed, let minimize . Every possible value of is at least , socontradicting a decrease by . Equivalently, its formal iteration would give , whereas is bounded on the finite state space. This is the constant nonzero drift is impossible on a finite Markov chain obstruction. Thus there is no genuine chain satisfying all the literal premises.
The meaningful intended version imposes the drift only on , and stops at . In the natural filtration , the Markov property then gives, on ,The correct stopped martingale isIt is adapted and integrable, since is bounded and . Its increment equalswhose conditional expectation is zero. Taking expectations yieldsSince almost surely and , the bounded convergence theorem gives . The monotone convergence theorem gives , without presupposing its finiteness. Consequently the constant-drift hitting-time identity isFor , both sides are zero. Under the repaired hypothesis the unstopped need not be a martingale after hitting ; it is the displayed stopped martingale that proves the result.