A martingale is square integrable when its value at every time belongs to L2 space. This implies ordinary integrability by Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. The condition is separate from a uniform bound on these second moments over an infinite horizon. An Itô integral is square integrable on a finite interval when its predictable integrand has finite expected integrated square, by Itô isometry.
Let , , and let be a binary random variable satisfying . Suppose is -measurable and is -measurable. The updateremains in and defines a bounded martingale. For example, take independent uniform random variables independent of the current filtration and set .
The binary identity givesand henceThe L2-bounded martingale convergence theorem gives a terminal random variable with almost sure convergence and convergence in L2. Iteration followed by the bounded convergence theorem yieldsThus takes only and , and preservation of its expected value gives a Bernoulli distribution with parameter . The terminal conditional expectation representation gives the exact mean squared errorThe finite-time paths can stay strictly inside while their limit lies entirely at the endpoints. The positive conditional variance in the interior makes permanent convergence to an interior value impossible.
Three players with positive integer holdings exchange a token by choosing an unordered active pair uniformly, then choosing the transfer direction fairly. Let be the conserved total, and the stopping time of the first elimination. Given holdings before , the conditional expectation of the change of their product is : transfers in each pair decrease the mean product by the third holding. Thus the displayed stopped process is a martingale. Its nonnegative product term gives , so the monotone convergence theorem first proves integrability of . The bounded product then vanishes by the dominated convergence theorem, yielding . Continuing the deterministic time term beyond elimination instead produces a submartingale.
Let be a random walk, independent of centered, independent time-space signs , and let . Averaging over the walk gives a positive martingale in the environment filtration: each new time layer has conditional mean-one weight. Hence and the martingale convergence theorem gives a finite nonnegative almost-sure limit. Preserving its mean requires an additional condition such as bounded second moments; positivity of finite-time weights alone does not suffice.
Delete the first environment factors from the path-weight expectation and call the result . Pointwise, . Thus equals and belongs to every future-time environment sigma-algebra. The Kolmogorov zero-one law makes its probability zero or one. If the nonnegative martingale limit has mean one, the probability cannot be one, so its limit is strictly positive almost surely. The pointwise comparison establishes a genuine tail event, rather than merely invariance outside an unspecified exceptional set.
Here counts simultaneous collisions of two independent walks. A shared environment sign contributes ; distinct signs contribute one. If the difference walk returns to zero with probability , its total number of positive-time returns has law . Therefore the second moments are bounded by whenever . Convergence in L2 then preserves the limit's mean one.
For a compensated jump martingale starting at zero, with jumps bounded in absolute value by and predictable quadratic variation at most on the interval, the displayed maximal bound holds. For , the elementary exponential boundmakes the exponential of minus that multiple of its predictable bracket a nonnegative supermartingale. Stop at the first crossing of and use its mean bound. Taking yields the one-sided bound; apply the same argument to and use the union bound for the displayed two-sided version. The elementary estimate follows from the exponential series and for . If , the compensated martingale is constant and the crossing probability is zero; the parameter choice above is needed only for .
For a nonnegative martingale, the displayed maximal probability bound follows by stopping at the first crossing of . The stopped expectation is at most its initial expectation, and on the crossing event its value is at least . Bound the stopping time first and pass to the limit using nonnegativity. This form is useful for the Poisson maximal concentration bound.
In a finite population that repeatedly lets one uniformly chosen individual copy a uniformly chosen distinct individual, the fraction of either type is a bounded martingale. Conditional probabilities of an increase and decrease coincide. Absorption at one of the two unanimous states occurs almost surely, since from every state there is a uniformly positive probability of reaching unanimity in a fixed finite block of updates. Bounded convergence implies that the probability of eventual unanimity of one type equals its initial fraction.
In a uniformly shuffled deck with red and black cards remaining, the conditional probability that the next two are red is . If at least three cards remain, is the weighted average of and after one reveal. Hence these probabilities form a bounded martingale until only two cards remain. Any adapted choice of exactly one betting time before that deadline has the same winning probability by bounded optional stopping. Waiting creates no advantage when a bet must eventually be made.
A nonnegative martingale takes nonnegative values almost surely at each time. In discrete time its expectations are constant, so it is bounded in and the martingale convergence theorem gives a finite integrable almost sure limit. Its expectations need not converge to the expectation of that limit; uniform integrability is needed for convergence in L1.
Expose independent coordinates successively and take the conditional mean of a function after each exposure. These conditional means form a martingale from to . A coordinate oscillation bound gives a conditional interval of length for the corresponding increment, by coupling the unexposed coordinates. Applying the Hoeffding lemma to these conditional ranges proves the McDiarmid inequality.
A martingale can diverge to almost surely when its increments are finite but not uniformly bounded. For independent Bernoulli random variables with ,has centered integrable increments. The First Borel-Cantelli lemma makes the rare negative jumps occur only finitely often, after which every increment equals one. The expectation remains zero at every finite time despite this pathwise divergence.
An integrable adapted process is a martingale if all its values at bounded stopping times are integrable with the same expectation as . For the converse, compare deterministic with , where and . The resulting identity is precisely the defining test for conditional expectation. In the forward direction, use the optional stopping theorem for a càdlàg martingale under the usual conditions for a filtration.
If a martingale has increments with almost surely for deterministic , then each one-sided deviation of magnitude from has probability at most . If all vanish, the martingale is constant. The inequality gives concentration from bounded increments without requiring independent increments.
For deterministic bounds , the conditional mean-zero increment has exponential moment at most . Iteration, the Markov inequality and optimization at give each one-sided tail, and the union bound gives the displayed inequality. The factor two in the exponent denominator cannot be omitted: a single symmetric increment of size one has absolute deviation one with probability one.
If a real sequence converges finitely, its successive increments tend to zero. A martingale whose increments stay bounded away from zero on every sample path cannot have a finite almost-sure limit, regardless of its zero conditional mean increments.
Once a nonnegative martingale hits zero, it stays zero almost surely. Conditional expectation on gives ; nonnegativity forces the next value to vanish there. A countable intersection makes these assertions simultaneous for all times, proving absorption at the first zero.
Let a nonnegative martingale start at one, let be its first zero, and let be its first hit of . Suppose and on finite hits, for thresholds . Then is a submartingale. The bounded stopped values have mean one, so their second moment is at most . Consequently . For this implies the weaker bound . The threshold restriction prevents an impossible overshoot requirement below the starting value.
Under the conditional-variance and overshoot assumptions of the absorption-time bound from conditional variance and overshoot, . Bound the probability by and optimize . If the resulting bound is below one, its minimizing threshold is greater than one; otherwise the probability bound is trivial.
A martingale difference sequence is an adapted sequence of integrable random variables , , with . Its partial sums are a martingale, and martingale increments give such sequences. If the differences are square-integrable, they are uncorrelated random variables: for , conditioning on gives .
A time-indexed increment with is a martingale difference relative to its history. Square-integrable differences at different indices are orthogonal, allowing their conditional variances to accumulate. They need not be independent.
If a martingale has increments bounded by a single deterministic constant, then almost surely. Its increments form a uniformly -bounded martingale difference sequence; apply the strong law for uniformly L2-bounded uncorrelated random variables to their partial sums and note . No square-integrability of the initial value is needed beyond the usual martingale integrability.
For a real continuous function on , let be its secant slope on each length- dyadic cell. Regard as a probability space and use the filtration of half-open dyadic cells with the endpoint as a separate null cell. The mean of the two child slopes equals the parent slope, so is a martingale. Its integral gives the linear interpolation of on that grid. If is Lipschitz continuous, these slopes are bounded by its Lipschitz constant; the Lp martingale convergence theorem then supplies a bounded integral density for .
For an -Lipschitz function on , its slopes on the dyadic partition, evaluated at a uniform distribution input, form a bounded martingale for the dyadic filtration. The uniformly integrable martingale convergence theorem yields a bounded terminal random variable , with chosen as a Borel measurable function by the Doob-Dynkin lemma. The terminal conditional expectation identity says that each slope is the average of over the corresponding dyadic interval. Integrating over adjacent dyadic intervals and taking a telescoping sum proves the displayed representation first at dyadic endpoints. The Lipschitz condition for and the bound extend it to every endpoint by continuity. This proves absolute continuity of a function without presupposing a derivative.
For fair independent and identically distributed random variables with the Bernoulli distribution, is a nonnegative martingale. It has almost sure convergence to zero but , so it lacks convergence in L1.
If is a square-integrable martingale, then its increments are orthogonal in : for ,More generally, multiplying the later increment by any square-integrable quantity measurable before it still gives expectation zero whenever the product is integrable.
For a submartingale with , its positive part is a submartingale by the conditional Jensen inequality. Thus the displayed conditional expectations increase in . Their limits are finite almost surely and have expectations at most , by the monotone convergence theorem. Conditional monotone convergence and the tower property of conditional expectation give . Moreover . Consequently is a nonnegative supermartingale, , and . The resulting martingale need not have uniform integrability.
Under the usual filtration conditions, a càdlàg submartingale of Class D on a finite horizon has a unique decomposition into a uniformly integrable martingale and a predictable integrable nondecreasing process starting at zero. A general continuous semimartingale decomposition instead allows an arbitrary continuous finite-variation drift. A convex function of a semimartingale need not be a submartingale when that drift has unrestricted sign.
If is a nonnegative submartingale, then for every ,Stop at the first crossing of and use the submartingale property on that event.
For a nonnegative submartingale with maximum , the first-moment maximal estimate is . Integrate times the tail probability only up to , obtaining . The Cauchy-Schwarz inequality gives , and monotone convergence gives the result as . Truncation avoids assuming beforehand that the maximum has a finite second moment.
// Target: brownian-motion.bigb
For a square-integrable martingale with and , apply the Doob maximal inequality to for . An upper crossing of implies a square crossing of , giving . Minimization at gives the displayed bound. A one-step martingale taking with probability and otherwise attains equality when .
For independent zero-mean square-integrable increments, their partial sums form a martingale, and their squares form a nonnegative submartingale. Apply the Doob maximal inequality to the squared process at threshold . Independence and zero means make its terminal second moment the sum of the increment variances. Identical distributions are not required.
For a centered square-integrable martingale with and , apply the Doob maximal inequality for a nonnegative submartingale to for . Conditional Jensen inequality gives the submartingale property, and crossing forces its square above . The bound is minimized by . This extends the Cantelli inequality from one random variable to a martingale maximum, without requiring independent increments.
For a nonnegative martingale, satisfies . Stop at and use nonnegativity before passing to the increasing event. A limit of thresholds from below also gives the bound for even when the supremum is not attained.
For independent centered random variables and ,Apply the Doob maximal inequality for a nonnegative submartingale to and optimize at .
If additionally , thenStop the square martingale for independent centered sums at the first exit from or at time .
For an integrable random variable and an increasing filtration , the process is a martingale. The tower property of conditional expectation gives the martingale identity.
Expose the independent edge indicators of a binomial random graph in a fixed order, and set for an integrable statistic . This is a martingale from to . If changing one edge changes by at most , coupling the unexposed indicators gives , permitting the Azuma-Hoeffding inequality.
If are independent integrable random variables with , thenis a martingale for , because independence gives .
Suppose are identically distributed independent random variables with , , and not constant almost surely. For each , strict concavity of givesThe moment is finite because on . Let . Independence and Markov's inequality giveThe series of the latter probabilities is finite. The First Borel-Cantelli lemma, applied for the countable choices , proves almost surely. This proof requires neither existence nor integrability of .
Although this nonnegative martingale has at every time, its terminal expected value is zero. It is therefore not uniformly integrable. The contrast is useful: bounded expected values ensure almost sure convergence here, but do not allow preservation of the expected value through the limit.
For finitely many independent uniform arrival times on , and fixed positive weights, normalize the unarrived mass by the remaining time. Conditional on not having arrived by , each arrival remains uniform on , giving the martingale identity. The process is càdlàg, nonnegative, and has constant mean equal to the total weight. It vanishes eventually before time one on each typical path, so it is not uniformly integrable when the total weight is positive.
For the uniform-arrival residual mass martingale with total weight , the first crossing of level one happens continuously: its only jumps are downward, and an arrival almost surely misses the finitely many deterministic possible crossing times. Stop at that crossing or at . The stopped values lie between zero and one, and their limit as is the crossing indicator. Optional stopping and dominated convergence identify its probability as . At the strict boundary inequality already fails at time zero.
A martingale whose values over its whole time interval form a uniformly integrable family has an integrable terminal limit and is closed by that limit. Conversely, conditional expectations of an integrable terminal variable form a uniformly integrable martingale, by uniform integrability of conditional expectations. For continuous martingales, one may equivalently use uniform integrability of the family stopped at finite stopping times.
A càdlàg martingale is a continuous-time martingale represented by a càdlàg process: its paths are right-continuous and have finite left limits at positive times, on one common probability-one event. This path regularity permits approximation of stopping times from above.
A continuous martingale is a continuous-time martingale whose paths are continuous outside one null event. Continuity does not remove the integrability or conditional-expectation requirements in the martingale definition.
A continuous martingale is L2-bounded when . The L2 martingale convergence theorem gives a terminal value with convergence in and almost sure convergence. The resulting conditional expectation identity is . Boundedness on each separate finite horizon is a weaker condition. The subspace with is commonly denoted .
Continuous square-integrable martingales on a fixed finite horizon form a complete space under the displayed terminal norm, modulo indistinguishability of stochastic processes. A terminal-norm Cauchy sequence admits a subsequence whose successive differences have norms below . The Doob L2 maximal inequality and Markov's inequality make the probabilities that these differences have suprema above summable. The Borel-Cantelli first lemma then gives an almost surely uniformly convergent telescoping series, so the limit has continuous paths.
Conditional-expectation contractivity gives convergence in at every fixed time, and passage to the limit in the martingale identities proves that the limit is a martingale. Adaptedness can be retained by taking the pointwise finite subsequence limit when it exists, and zero otherwise. The original Cauchy sequence converges in terminal norm to this limit. This completeness allows the Itô isometry to extend stochastic integration from simple predictable integrands to the full square-integrable integrand space while retaining a continuous martingale version.
For a continuous local martingale starting at zero, finite expected terminal quadratic variation is equivalent to being an L2-bounded continuous martingale. Stop at bounded path and bracket levels and use . Uniform integrability removes the localization; Doob L2 maximal inequality justifies convergence of squares. The terminal identity is . For nonzero initial values one must additionally assume .
For a L2-bounded continuous martingale, the terminal and maximal norms satisfyThe first inequality follows from almost sure convergence. Apply the Doob L2 maximal inequality on and then the monotone convergence theorem as for the second. These are equivalent norms on the space modulo indistinguishability of stochastic processes; neither inequality needs a zero initial value.
An adapted process is a local martingale when there are stopping times almost surely such that each stopped process is a martingale. Every martingale is local, while a positive local martingale is a supermartingale.
A uniformly bounded local martingale is a true uniformly integrable martingale: a localizing sequence gives uniformly dominated stopped values, so their conditional identities pass to the limit. A deterministic bound on each compact time interval gives a true martingale on each such interval, even when the bound grows with time.
An integrable discrete-time local martingale is a true martingale. Its stopped increments have the form , and the dominated convergence theorem removes a localizing sequence from the conditional increment identity.
The Fatou lemma makes every time value of a nonnegative discrete-time local martingale integrable, assuming the usual integrable initial value. The integrable discrete-time result then makes it a true martingale.
A strict local martingale is a local martingale that is not a true martingale. The reciprocal of a three-dimensional Bessel process is an example: it is a nonnegative continuous local martingale whose expectation decreases strictly.
For planar Brownian motion started at zero, , considered from time one onward, is a local martingale because is harmonic off the polar point zero. Every fixed-time absolute moment is finite, but increases. It is therefore not a true martingale. Finite moments at individual times do not establish class DL.
// Target: probability-and-statistics.bigb
A localizing sequence for a local martingale is an increasing sequence of stopping times almost surely such that every stopped process is a true martingale. One can often choose the times so that the stopped processes are bounded.
A continuous local martingale is a local martingale whose sample paths are continuous almost surely. Its quadratic variation determines much of its pathwise behaviour.
If is a continuous local martingale and , then finite variation of forces . The Itô formula and the quadratic variation of a stochastic integral give . The occupation-times formula implies that almost everywhere where . On the zero set of , its derivative vanishes almost everywhere: zeros at which are isolated and hence countable. Thus . Both terms in the Itô formula vanish.
Suppose are continuous, start at zero, and is increasing. If and are local martingales, their logarithms first recover adaptation of and the semimartingale property of . In the decomposition , the two Itô drift measures give and . Thus and . All real exponential parameters may be assumed, but these two suffice.
A process has conditionally symmetric increments if, for all deterministic and bounded measurable ,Equivalently, the conditional characteristic function of every increment is invariant under changing the sign of its argument. This property is stronger than unconditional symmetry and is different from independent increments. It supplies identities between positive and negative exponential terminal martingales.
Suppose is a continuous local martingale starting at zero, with conditionally symmetric increments, and terminal conditional expectations have continuous martingale versions. ThenTo prove this, set . Symmetry makes a martingale, and the Itô product rule gives . Consequently is a bounded local martingale, hence a martingale. Evaluating at the endpoints proves the formula. If also for all , the values of the bracket Laplace transform at and force almost surely. Continuity and the Lévy characterization of Brownian motion then identify as Brownian motion.
A continuous local martingale converges to a finite limit on the event that its terminal bracket is finite. Stopping at each integer bracket level gives an L2-bounded martingale and its almost sure limit. On the finite-bracket event, some such stopped process coincides with the original process forever. This supplies terminal values for a finite DDS lifetime.
The polynomial has zero Itô drift. Finite fourth maximal and second bracket moments make it a true martingale. If and , then . Equality at every time forces a deterministic clock and hence Brownian motion by the Lévy characterization of Brownian motion.
If a local martingale has an integrable running absolute supremum on each fixed finite horizon, localization and conditional dominated convergence make it a true martingale. This upgrades polynomial Itô local martingales when maximal moments and bracket moments control all terms.
A continuous local martingale with and deterministically bounded quadratic variation on every finite horizon is a square-integrable martingale, with . Localization, the Doob L2 maximal inequality, and the resulting integrable bound on the squared supremum justify removing the localizing sequence.
A continuous local martingale with finite variation is almost surely constant. After localization, its quadratic variation is both zero, because it has finite variation, and the quantity controlling its increments, because it is a martingale.
Let be a continuous local martingale with and . Forthe process is Brownian motion andWhen , one can enlarge the probability space and continue independently beyond that time.
For a continuous local martingale with infinite terminal quadratic variation, the Dambis-Dubins-Schwarz theorem represents . Its continuous clock traverses all nonnegative times. Standard one-dimensional Brownian motion has unbounded positive and negative oscillations, by the Brownian reflection principle or recurrence of one-dimensional Brownian motion. Continuity bounds every path on compact time intervals, so these large values occur at arbitrarily late times. Pulling them back through the clock proves the displayed conclusion almost surely, and in particular .
For independent standard Brownian motions , Itô formula gives : the two second-order drifts cancel. Independence gives zero cross quadratic covariation, so the displayed bracket follows. The process itself is not Brownian because its bracket is random. Its inverse-bracket time change is Brownian motion starting at one, in the time-changed filtration; subtracting one gives standard Brownian motion. The Divergence of a driftless Brownian exponential clock guarantees that the inverse is finite at every new time.
Let be a zero-starting continuous local martingale and let be a stopping time with and for a deterministic . The complex exponential is a bounded local martingale, hence a true martingale. Its terminal expectation is one, giving the characteristic function . Conditional optional sampling between two bracket levels also gives independent Gaussian increments in inverse-bracket time; Gaussian one-time marginals alone do not establish that independence.
For a continuous local martingale with divergent bracket and a continuous drift satisfying , the process , , exits almost surely. In unit bracket time a Brownian increment of absolute size greater than forces exit within one unit, giving a geometric survival bound. The inverse bracket clock transfers this finite exit to ordinary time.
// Target: probability-and-statistics.bigb
If a continuous vector local martingale has bracket matrix with , inverse-clock time change gives bracket matrix . The Lévy characterization of multidimensional Brownian motion then gives Brownian motion in the common time-changed filtration. A continuous local martingale is constant on flat intervals of its bracket, so inverses using and give the same martingale values. The filtration at the earlier inverse is smaller; adaptation and independence from the larger past transfer the Brownian property to it. Nonzero initial values are retained by adding the initial vector back.
A continuous local martingale bounded above pathwise throughout a stochastic time interval cannot have infinite quadratic variation at that interval's endpoint. The Dambis-Dubins-Schwarz theorem represents it as Brownian motion at its quadratic-variation clock; an infinite clock would force unbounded oscillations. Its clock therefore has a finite limit, and so does the martingale. A bound below gives the same conclusion by changing sign. The bound may be random; it must hold over the entire interval.
Strict increase of a bracket does not force an infinite terminal value. Up to , the inverse-clock martingale continues at a finite lifetime by its terminal limit, with bracket . On an independent product extension, add . Its bracket fills and its cross variation with the original part vanishes. The result is Brownian for all clock times and still represents .
For a continuous strictly increasing unbounded bracket , the inverse times satisfy and . Optional sampling of the original martingale stopped at bounded bracket levels makes a continuous local martingale in . Time-changing the square-minus-bracket martingale gives its bracket ; the Lévy characterization of Brownian motion identifies it as Brownian.
If a continuous local martingale satisfiesfor a nonnegative predictable process , then, after enlarging the probability space if necessary, there is a Brownian motion such thatAn independent Brownian motion supplies noise on the set where .
The Brownian motion in is generally constructed from , so it need not be independent of the quadratic variation . For example, has clock , and their dependence can be detected by a nonzero mixed moment.
For every there are constants such that a continuous local martingale with satisfiesfor every stopping time for which the quantities are finite.
Real and imaginary parts of an analytic Brownian image, after subtracting their starting values, have equal quadratic variation. The Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequalities compare their centered maximal moments with constants depending only on . A boundary-point normalization does not remove the starting imaginary value. For on a wedge of opening , . If both relevant moments are finite, so an uncentered comparison requires a constant at least ; no bound depending only on can hold over all such wedges. For fixed , polynomials with finite real-part maximal moment have degree by the wedge radial-maximum tail. They form a finite-dimensional vector space, and equivalence of norms in finite dimensions gives a valid constant depending on .
For Brownian motion started at zero, condition at time . If the stopping time exceeds while the running absolute maximum stays below , the path must remain in a fixed interval for another time units. Its expected exit time from this interval is at most . Markov's inequality yields the displayed bound. Integrating it against for a function of moderate growth, then absorbing the small tail term, proves .
A continuous nondecreasing function with has moderate growth if the displayed inequality holds for some and finite , uniformly in . Iteration gives a bound for any fixed positive dilation, and at most polynomial growth at infinity. The powers , , satisfy the condition. It allows a good-lambda tail comparison to be integrated into a moment comparison.
For and a continuous local martingale starting at zero, the Itô formula for , the Doob Lp maximal inequality and Hölder's inequality yield . One possible constant is . Stop at increasing absolute-value levels to remove an initial boundedness assumption. This proves the upper half of the Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequalities in this range.
Every nonnegative local martingale is a supermartingale. In particular, one that starts from zero is identically zero: its nonnegative value at every time has expectation at most zero.
For and , stop at the infimum of strict crossings above . Continuity bounds the stopped process by and makes its value at a finite crossing time exactly . Its expectation remains one, and bounded convergence at infinity yields . The maximum has density on , with no endpoint atom.
A nonnegative local martingale is a supermartingale. If its integrable terminal limit has the same expectation as its initial value, conditional Fatou lemma gives , and equality of expectations makes this an equality. It is therefore a uniformly integrable martingale.
For a square-integrable martingale starting at zero,For a continuous local martingale stopped so that its quadratic variation is integrable, the Itô isometry makes the right-hand side .
This is the specialization of Doob's martingale inequality.
A martingale bounded in converges almost surely and in to a square-integrable limit. Orthogonality of its increments makes their squared norms summable.
If every increment of a discrete martingale takes values in , thenIterated conditioning shows that the increments are independent symmetric signs, so is a simple symmetric random walk.
If is a martingale and counts its completed upcrossings of by time , thenEquivalent conventions may add an initial endpoint term.
For a nonnegative supermartingale and , let count completed upcrossings of , allowing the first entry at time zero. The displayed bound holds for every integer . Construct the multiplicative upcrossing supermartingale, stop at the th completed crossing, and use its initial expected value and nonnegativity. The bound is exponential in the number of crossings, and complements the first-moment Doob upcrossing inequality.
Start with cash one, switch to when a nonnegative supermartingale first reaches at most , and switch to cash when it next reaches at least . Repeat with coefficients multiplied by after every completed upcrossing. At each switch the new value is at most the old one, so pasting supermartingales with downward jumps gives a supermartingale when stopped after any fixed number of switches. Its initial value is , and its value at the th completed crossing is exactly . Applying its expected value bound proves the Dubins upcrossing inequality.
An upcrossing of an interval consists of an observation at or below followed by a later observation at or above . Successive completed upcrossings use disjoint buy-sell pairs.
The upcrossing count counts completed upcrossings by time , allowing the first purchase at time zero. For a martingale, the Doob upcrossing inequality bounds its expected value by .
A discrete-time martingale with converges almost surely to an integrable random variable. If the martingale is uniformly integrable, convergence also holds in .
This is one of Doob's martingale convergence theorems; uniform integrability upgrades almost-sure convergence to convergence in mean.
Let independent increments equal or with probabilities each, and zero otherwise. Every partial sum is integrable and is a martingale. The Borel-Cantelli lemma makes only finitely many increments nonzero almost surely, so has a finite almost-sure limit . Yet : the disjoint events that only the th increment is nonzero have probabilities at least for , and contribute at least each. This does not contradict the martingale convergence theorem, whose integrability conclusion requires a uniform first-moment bound.
// Target: markov-process.bigb
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