Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 32 6 ii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A Gaussian forward-rate field models the whole instantaneous forward rate curve. Let be a real separable Hilbert space, let be a cylindrical Brownian motion, and let deterministic satisfy the maturity-integrability and square-integrability conditions needed below. For a deterministic initial curve, specify under Using an orthonormal basis, the noise is ; an infinite-dimensional cylindrical noise need not exist as an -valued random vector. Its covariation kernel across maturities is the positive semidefinite kernel . Thus arbitrary suitable maturity-correlation kernels can be represented by Hilbert-space factors, while finitely many factors give finite-rank kernels.
No arbitrage requires a drift restriction. Define the zero-coupon bond price and integrated volatility byDifferentiation of the moving lower endpoint and the Itô formula giveThe discounted bond must have zero drift. Differentiating with respect to maturity yields the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model restrictionThis is why forward-rate drift and covariance cannot be selected independently in an arbitrage-free random-field model. With deterministic volatilities square-integrable on the finite horizon, the discounted bond stochastic exponential is a true martingale, not only a local martingale.
The solution is explicitly Gaussian:with mean given by the first two terms and covarianceThe entire Gaussian random field can therefore be calibrated through its initial curve and maturity covariance structure. Bond prices are exponential functionals of these Gaussian rates; conditional bond ratios have lognormal laws under appropriate forward measures. Negative rates are possible. A large or infinite volatility space provides rich maturity correlations, but Gaussianity alone supplies neither a low-dimensional Markov state nor positivity of rates.