Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 206 1 f Solution 2026-10-05
For EM for zero-inflated negative binomial regression, at iteration apply Bayes theorem to each zero in the zero-inflated negative binomial model. The E step computes the conditional expectation of its latent indicator:Treating these values as fixed, the M step maximizes the expected complete-data log-likelihood. Its two parameter blocks separate:The second block is a weighted negative binomial regression with fixed size . Writing and , its parameter-dependent objective isIts score function and negative Hessian matrix areThe objective is concave, so a finite maximizer, when it exists, can be found by Newton method or iteratively reweighted least squares. The latter uses working response and weights . This is not an unweighted regression on only the positive counts: zeros retain fractional weight in the count component.
Start with and finite coefficients, alternate the two steps, and monitor the observed log-likelihood. Exact maximization makes the expectation-maximization algorithm nondecreasing in that likelihood, although the mixture may have multiple stationary points. All-zero data can lead to boundary fits and poor identification; multiple initializations and explicit checks for boundary parameters are useful.