Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 43 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Condition on the claim count, defining the empty sum to be zero. Independence gives . By the law of total expectation,For nonnegative claims this also follows from Tonelli theorem; for signed claims finite and ensure integrability. Conditional independence likewise givesThis random-sum transform identity holds wherever the composed series is finite, or as an extended nonnegative expectation. It is not permission to use an algebraic continuation outside the convergence domain.
For the zero-based geometric distribution, summing the geometric series givesThe exponential distribution of mean has for . ThereforeThe stricter bound is necessary: the geometric series requires . At and above that series diverges; at and above even one claim has an infinite transform. Thus the displayed rational expression represents the moment-generating function only on its stated domain.
Since all claims are strictly positive, exactly when , so . Splitting the transform givesUniqueness of the moment-generating function identifies a mixture distribution with a zero atom of weight and an exponential positive component of weight and rate . In particular,The density integrates to , not one. One can also verify it directly: conditional on , the sum has Erlang distribution density . Multiplying by and summing over gives , the same density. This is the zero-based geometric sum of exponential variables.
Under excess of loss reinsurance, the ceded amount for each claim is , and the monthly reduction is their random sum. The tail integral formula for moments givesConditioning on again yieldsThe retained payment is ; it is generally not .
Under aggregate stop loss reinsurance, the reduction is . The aggregate tail is for , soThe prefactor is positive. Equality with the per-claim recovery is equivalent to , giving the unique reinsurance retentionThis is the relation for equal expected recoveries from excess of loss and stop loss; since , the aggregate reinsurance retention exceeds the individual reinsurance retention. These are reductions in claim payouts, before any reinsurance premium is deducted.