Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 ib Paper 1 20H i Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-06
For a state , its period is ; the condition defines aperiodicity. It is a positive recurrent state if return occurs almost surely and its first strictly positive return time has finite expectation. An ergodic state of a Markov chain is positive recurrent and aperiodic.
The PDF specifies for ; the TeX aid drops the essential value one. Consequently every positive state reaches zero deterministically. From zero, every positive state is reached in one step with probability . Paths through zero connect any pair of states, proving irreducibility.
Let be the jump out of zero. It has for , after which exactly downward steps return to zero. Therefore , givingThese probabilities sum to one andReturns of lengths two and three both have positive probability, so the period is one. Hence state zero is ergodic, and by irreducibility all states are positive recurrent and have the same period.
For this geometric-jump countdown Markov chain, the invariant equations give and for . Summing the tail, or counting visits in a regeneration cycle, yields . Normalization givesThis is the stationary distribution of a regenerative countdown chain. The standard recurrence identity for an irreducible positive recurrent Markov chain is , so