Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 ia Paper 2 9F Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-06
Let and measure Lionel's fortune in unit stakes. This is gambler's ruin: the fortune moves by with probability and with probability , stopping at or . Let be the expected value of the absorption time starting at . It is finite: from any interior state, a run of wins or losses has a fixed positive probability of absorption within steps, giving a geometric bound on survival over successive blocks. First-step analysis therefore givesFor , the homogeneous solution of the recurrence is , and a particular solution is . Put . Imposing the two endpoint boundary conditions gives the expected duration of biased gambler's ruinConsequently the expected number of games isThe denominator and numerator have matching signs, so this is positive. As a check its continuous limit at is , the expected duration of symmetric gambler's ruin.