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Expected duration of biased gambler's ruin (mi​=[N(1−ρi)/(1−ρN)−i]/(p−q))

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Probability theory Markov process Markov chain Gambler's ruin
2026-10-06  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
For a nearest-neighbour fortune on {0,…,N}, with win probability p, loss probability q=1−p and p=q, put ρ=q/p. First-step analysis gives mi​=1+pmi+1​+qmi−1​, with zero endpoint values. Solving the recurrence gives the displayed mean duration. Its symmetric limit is i(N−i).

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  1. Gambler's ruin
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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2015 / ia / Paper 2 / 9F / Solution

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