Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 iii Paper 39 2 ii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Interpret the exponential distribution change time as an exogenous time independent of the stock's Brownian motion, or, equivalently for this calculation, as having constant conditional intensity while the rate remains high. Its marginal distribution alone would not imply that conditional intensity if the change time carried information about stock returns. Write , , , and let be the prechange value function.
Over a short interval , a rate change occurs with probability and changes continuation value from to . The dynamic programming equation is consequentlyThis jump term distinguishes the exponential interest-rate switch from a permanent higher bank rate.
By the homogeneity of CRRA utility, put , with . Differentiating the strictly concave expressions in and givesThe optimized consumption terms contribute , and the optimized investment terms contribute . With , the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation reduces toEquivalently,The left side is continuous and strictly increasing for , with limits zero and infinity. Thus gives one and only one positive root. This scalar equation is an explicit characterization for arbitrary real ; elementary closed forms are not generally available. For example, when ,Use until the rate changes, and afterwards. If the two rates coincide, the root is ; as tends to infinity, it also tends to .
For a direct attainability check, use the proposed prechange constant fractions. The geometric Brownian motion moment is on the prechange evolution. Conditioning on the independent exponential distribution time therefore givesThe denominator is positive because the scalar equation gives . Hence the candidate policy actually achieves the stated value.
One can also verify the upper bound for both signs of without relying on a sign-sensitive terminal-value argument. Let be the current regime, the candidate portfolio wealth, andIf and , the Itô formula and the scalar equation givewhere the jump term stops after the switch and continuous coefficients are understood predictably. Thus is a positive martingale deflator: for any admissible portfolio wealth , the process is a nonnegative local martingale. It follows thatFor the candidate policy, . Indeed its surviving prechange term decays at rate , and its postchange terms decay at rate ; integrating over the switch time preserves convergence to zero. The finite-time moment computations also make its budget equality exact. Consequently . Apply the concave supporting-tangent inequalityand integrate in time and expectation. The budget inequality proves that no admissible policy exceeds the candidate. This verifies the value function, including when .
Both and are needed for a finite prechange answer. If the postchange value is already infinite, that problem persists after the almost surely finite switch. If but , then for a small constant prechange consumption fraction makes the expected utility function before the switch diverge, or makes its supremum diverge when . For , the optimal no-consumption terminal moment before the switch is ; withdrawals only increase this negative-power moment. The expected magnitude of the negative postchange continuation utility function therefore contains the divergent integral . Thus these cases yield respectively or , rather than a positive-root solution.