Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 40 2 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A constant posterior variance must be a fixed point of the recursion in part (b). Multiplying by its positive denominator givesConversely, if a nonnegative solves this equation and the filter is initialized with , the recursion preserves at every step. The fixed-point equation alone does not force an arbitrary initial covariance to be constant.
For , the admissible root and its steady-state local-level Kalman gain areThe state estimate then obeys exponential smoothing:Iteration makes the weights explicit:Thus older observations receive geometrically decreasing weights. Consistently with part (a), the innovations variance is and the differenced MA coefficient is . The degeneracies and give gain zero and gain one respectively when the denominator is positive.