The finite-horizon GWP lifetime sensitivity follows because a longer lifetime leaves more methane from a given pulse at later times and raises the steady burden for a given constant emission rate. For the stipulated exponential pulse response and unchanged greenhouse gas radiative efficiency, the integrated methane forcing over horizon is proportional to . The same carbon dioxide reference pulse appears in both global warming potential denominators, so it cancels from their ratio:
Thus the twenty-year GWP increases by under these fixed-efficiency assumptions. This is smaller than the lifetime increase because part of the extra forcing occurs beyond the finite horizon. For an infinite horizon the fractional increase would approach the lifetime ratio. Indirect forcing and the distinction between a chemical lifetime and a hydroxyl radical-coupled methane perturbation lifetime require a fuller chemical model; they are held fixed in this comparison.
Figure 1.
Original exponential methane-pulse responses and finite-horizon GWP sensitivity
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