Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 42 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A marginal statistical likelihood uses a statistic whose marginal sampling distribution depends on the parameter of interest but does not involve the nuisance parameter. It integrates out other observed coordinates. A profile likelihood instead keeps the full data and, for every fixed interest parameter, fits the nuisance parameter by maximizing the full likelihood. Profiling supplies a likelihood function but usually not a normalized sampling probability density function. Here the marginalization is of data coordinates; Bayesian model evidence averages parameters against a prior and is a separate construction.
Use shape-rate notation for the gamma distribution. The independent sums have and , so their joint probability density for isFor , the absolute Jacobian determinant is u. ThereforeIntegrate u using the gamma integral . The lambda factors cancel, leavingThus T gives a nuisance-free marginal likelihood. Discarding only terms independent of psi, its logarithm isThe factor t in the logarithm is required, as in the original PDF.
The full log-likelihood is . Its lambda derivative vanishes uniquely atThe second derivative in lambda is negative. Substituting this maximum gives . Since , it agrees with up to a psi-independent constant. This proves the Gamma-ratio marginal and profile likelihood identity. Their common maximizer is , if an interest-parameter estimate is also wanted.