Frequency-dependent transmission 2026-10-14
For frequency-dependent transmission with homogeneous mixing, each member of the susceptible compartment experiences force of infection . Consequently the total flow into the infectious compartment is people per unit time. The constant combines the contact frequency and the chance that a relevant contact causes infection, and has units of inverse time. Holding the infectious compartment's fraction fixed holds each person's force of infection fixed when changes. An unnormalized mass-action infection convention instead writes the total flow as , where has units of inverse person-time; these two coefficients must not be confused.
Homogeneous mixing 2026-10-14
Homogeneous mixing assumes that contacts sample the whole modelled population without differences between groups or locations. In the SIR model, the chance that a sampled contact belongs to the infectious compartment is . This assumption makes a frequency-dependent transmission rule depend on the overall infectious compartment rather than a graph of individual contacts. Structured contacts require a different mathematical model, such as a discrete SIR epidemic on a graph.
SIR model Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
The SIR model is a mathematical model of an epidemic that follows three groups: a susceptible compartment whose members can acquire infection, an infectious compartment whose members can pass it on, and a removed compartment whose members neither acquire nor pass on infection. The letters stand for susceptible, infectious and recovered or removed. Here we study the simplest closed, constant-parameter version, with homogeneous mixing and no births, deaths, migration or waning immunity. A person who leaves the infectious compartment never returns to the susceptible compartment in this version.[ref]
https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/1-022-introduction-to-network-models-fall-2018/fe3c864fd7d2d45ed7fe65e601d9c69e_MIT1_022F18_lec20.pdf. Amir Ajorlou, MIT Lecture 20: Epidemics, slides 18 and 24
The appeal of the SIR model is that one can explain a rise and fall in the infectious compartment without changing anyone's behavior: fewer opportunities for new infection eventually reverse the growth. The SIR first integral even determines the SIR infection peak without computing its time. These are useful deductions from explicit assumptions. The stipulated numbers below illustrate the mathematical model; they are neither estimates for an actual disease nor a forecast or medical advice.
Kermack and McKendrick's 1927 paper, "A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics", in Proceedings of the Royal Society A, is an early foundation for the SIR model. Its DOI is
10.1098/rspa.1927.0118, also recorded in the Royal Society's archive of contemporary referee reports.[ref]https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1927.0118. Kermack and McKendrick, original 1927 paper
[ref]https://catalogues.royalsociety.org/CalmView/Record.aspx?id=RR%2F35%2F131&src=CalmView.Catalog. Royal Society archive: contemporary referee report and publication record
Transfers between the three compartments of the SIR model
. The SIR model equations transfer a fraction per day from the susceptible compartment to the infectious compartment, and a fraction per day from the infectious compartment to the removed compartment. Each arrow contributes a loss to one group and an equal gain to another, giving conservation of population. Details.