For a real sequence of exchangeable random variables, every event in its invariant sigma-algebra of an exchangeable sequence agrees almost surely with an event of its tail sigma-algebra. Put . Approximate in by its conditional expectation on the first coordinates. Swap that block with the next coordinates. Invariance of and the law shows that the conditional expectation on the second block is an equally good approximation. It is measurable with respect to the tail after index . The L1 contraction of conditional expectation then bounds by twice the approximation error. The reverse martingale convergence theorem gives almost surely. Thresholding the latter at supplies the required tail event. Together with the reverse inclusion, the two sigma-algebras have identical probability completions.
Let be an integrable random variable, let be a finite -measurable random variable, and suppose is an integrable random variable. Then a known factor can be taken outside the conditional expectation:
For a bounded , first verify the defining integral identity when is the indicator function of a measurable set in , extend by linearity to simple functions, and then use bounded approximation and the dominated convergence theorem. For nonnegative , truncating and using the conditional monotone convergence theorem proves the identity with extended nonnegative conditional expectations. In particular,
For general under the stated integrability assumptions, the conditional Jensen inequality bounds by that integrable random variable. Apply the bounded-factor result to truncations of , then use the dominated convergence theorem on the products and the L1 contraction of conditional expectation. This proves the identity without assuming itself is an integrable random variable.
The product-integrability condition is essential to the ordinary finite conditional expectation statement. An unbounded factor cannot be moved through an expected value simply because its partner is an integrable random variable.[ref]
We first construct a terminal integrable function without using the martingale convergence theorem. Put and on . This is a finite positive measure. If almost everywhere the conclusion is immediate. Otherwise, for a bounded dyadic step function measurable with respect to in the dyadic filtration, define
The martingale property makes the definition independent of the choice of a sufficiently large . Moreover . Dyadic step functions are dense in : continuous functions on the closed unit cube are dense for this finite Borel measure (extend the measure by zero onto the omitted faces), and uniform continuity approximates each continuous function by step functions on fine dyadic partitions. Thus extends to a bounded linear functional on of norm at most one. The duality of Lp spaces representation of this functional gives with and . Set , taking where . Then and testing indicators of all dyadic atoms proves
This argument also works for complex-valued martingales, with a complex linear functional.
To prove convergence, choose a dyadic step function with arbitrarily small. For all beyond its dyadic level, . The L1 contraction of conditional expectation yields
This proves convergence in . For convergence almost everywhere, Doob maximal inequality applied to the conditional expectations of gives
Let the approximation error tend to zero, and then take positive rational . Hence both in and almost everywhere.
For the second assertion, write and take the given first-exit stopping time . Each is integrable, being a finite sum of restrictions of integrable variables. Its increments satisfy
The indicator is -measurable, so taking its conditional expectation proves that is a martingale.
The overshoot at need not be bounded by . Instead, for a fixed , on with we have . Integrating over this -measurable event, summing the disjoint events, and including gives
The variables increase to , and . The monotone convergence theorem gives . Before stopping, the process has magnitude less than ; after stopping it remains at . Consequently
This is the integrable overshoot of a stopped L1-bounded martingale. The first part now proves that every such stopped process converges almost everywhere.
Finally, Doob maximal inequality gives , by applying the finite-horizon estimate and then increasing the horizon. Thus is finite almost everywhere. Outside the union of the null sets for all positive integer stopping thresholds, choose an integer larger than this supremum. No stopping occurs at that point, so for all , and converges to a finite limit almost everywhere. We have not assumed, or concluded, convergence for this general -bounded martingale.
Here is an alternative route for the ergodicity step using the Birkhoff ergodic theorem. After invariance has been proved, the theorem identifies the almost-everywhere limit of with . The hypothesis therefore gives
for every continuous function . For an invariant Borel set , approximate in by such a . Since is measurable with respect to the invariant sigma-algebra, its conditional expectation is itself. The L1 contraction of conditional expectation gives
Arbitrarily accurate continuous approximation forces almost everywhere. Thus this use of the theorem reaches the same zero-or-one criterion as the direct averaging proof above, without assuming in advance that is ergodic.
Let swap coordinate blocks and , fixing all other coordinates. The symmetric law makes measure preserving, and invariance of the event gives pointwise. Put .
Conditional expectation transforms covariantly under this block swap:
To check it, the left side is -measurable, and for the change of variables by sends its defining integral to the conditional-expectation identity on , with . Thus the two versions agree. Measure preservation now gives
This is the first requested estimate.
The L1 contraction of conditional expectation follows from the pointwise bound : take expectations to get . Applied to a difference, it makes conditional expectation a contraction between any two integrable inputs.
Let . Since , is -measurable. Hence
Combining this with the other given approximation bound yields
The left side does not depend on , and was arbitrary. It is therefore zero. For a -measurable version , the event belongs to and satisfies
This proves that exchangeable invariant events are tail events modulo null sets. It does not assert literal pointwise equality of the two events or sigma-algebras before completing them with null sets.
A sequence of integrable random variables has uniform integrability exactly when
The uniformly integrable martingale convergence theorem states that a uniformly integrable discrete-time martingale has an integrable random variable with
Indeed, uniform integrability implies , so the martingale convergence theorem gives almost sure convergence. The combination of uniform integrability and almost sure convergence gives convergence in L1. For , the martingale identity passes to the limit by the L1 contraction of conditional expectation.