Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 207 3 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
An instrumental variable supplies variation in an exposure that can be used for causal inference about its effect on . Its three core requirements are:
- Instrument relevance: changes the distribution of ; in a simple linear model this requires a nonzero first-stage association.
- Instrumental-variable independence: is independent of unmeasured common causes of and , or independent of the relevant potential outcomes conditional on specified measured covariates.
- Exclusion restriction: interventions on affect only through , with no other causal pathway. In potential outcomes notation, .
Relevance, independence, and exclusion are the core instrumental-variable assumptions. They do not by themselves identify an arbitrary population-average effect. For a binary instrument and treatment, instrumental-variable monotonicity and the usual consistency in causal inference assumptions can identify a local average treatment effect; stronger effect-homogeneity or structural-model assumptions are needed for other effect interpretations.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 iii Paper 207 1 1 Solution 2026-09-28
Let indicate a recent birthday event, indicate a social gathering, and denote subsequent household COVID-19 infection. The standard instrumental variable conditions are:
- Instrument relevance: changes the probability or intensity of .
- Instrumental-variable independence: conditional on chosen baseline covariates, birthday timing is independent of unmeasured causes of infection and of the relevant potential outcomes.
- The exclusion restriction: affects only through the social gathering .
- For a local average treatment effect, instrumental-variable monotonicity excludes households that would hold a gathering without a birthday event but would suppress it because of one.
The usual consistency in causal inference, well-defined exposure, and absence of relevant interference in causal inference are also needed to interpret the result causally.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 iii Paper 221 4 ii Solution 2026-09-28
Instrumental-variable monotonicity isIt excludes defiers who would quit without the incentive but continue smoking when offered it. The possible principal strata are then never-takers , compliers , and always-takers .
By random assignment, consistency, and exclusion,The second identity follows by checking the two possible binary exposure values. Under monotonicity, is the indicator of being a complier. Therefore the numerator iswhileTheir ratio is the complier average treatment effect, also called the local average treatment effect.