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Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2015 / ii / Paper 2 / 25J / i

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Mathematics course of the University of Cambridge Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 ii Paper 2 25J
Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-06  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
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i
The uniform prior has s=1, so the posterior is Beta(X+1,n−X+1). Its mean and mode are
E[θ∣X]=n+2X+1​,mθ∣X​=nX​.​
(1)
Thus the uniform-prior posterior mode is the maximum-likelihood estimator, including X=0,n. The mean shrinks toward 1/2 and equals the maximum-likelihood estimator only when X=n/2.

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