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Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2019 / iii / Paper 201 / 1 / b / Solution

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2019 iii Paper 201 1 b
2026-10-03  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
Let τ=Ta​∧Tb​. The walk exits the finite interval [a,b] almost surely, and the stopped martingale ϕ(Sn∧τ​) is bounded between λb and λa. The optional stopping theorem and bounded convergence theorem give
1=ϕ(0)=E[ϕ(Sτ​)]=λaP(Ta​<Tb​)+λbP(Tb​<Ta​).
(1)
Solving for the first probability gives the biased gambler's ruin probability
P(Ta​<Tb​)=λb−λaλb−1​=ϕ(b)−ϕ(a)ϕ(b)−ϕ(0)​.​
(2)

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