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Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2019 / iii / Paper 219 / 2 / a / Solution

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2019 iii Paper 219 2 a
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The measurement model has the Gaussian likelihood
P(d∣x)=2πσ2​1​exp[−2σ2(d−x)2​].
(1)
Marginalizing the latent angular momentum gives the normalized posterior distribution
P(m∣d)=∬P(d∣x)P(x,m)dxdm∫P(d∣x)P(x,m)dx​.​
(2)
Its posterior mean is
mˉ=∬P(d∣x)P(x,m)dxdm∬mP(d∣x)P(x,m)dxdm​.​
(3)

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