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Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2021 / iii / Paper 202 / 4 / a / Solution

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2021 iii Paper 202 4 a
2026-09-28  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
Continuity gives Xτa​​=a on {τa​<∞}. The stopped process Xτa​ is bounded by a and is therefore a true martingale. Hence
1=EXt∧τa​​=aP(τa​≤t)+E[Xt​1{τa​>t}​].
(1)
The second term tends to zero by bounded convergence because Xt​→0 and it is bounded by a. Thus
P(τa​<∞)=P(t≥0sup​Xt​>a)=a1​​.
(2)

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