Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2021 / iii / Paper 207 / 1 / a / i

Table of contents
- Solution i

Solution

The permitted transitions in the continuous-time multi-state model are

1 q_{12} 2, 1 q_{13} 3, 1 q_{15} 5, 2 q_{24} 4, 2 q_{25} 5, 3 q_{34} 4, 3 q_{35} 5, 4 q_{45} 5.

State 5 is absorbing. The absence of arrows from dementia states 2 and 4 back to nondementia states expresses irreversibility; stroke likewise remains in the history after entry to states 3 or 4.

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