In the weak-field, slow-source approximation, the leading luminosity is the quadrupole formula
in units , where
Only the symmetric trace-free coefficient contributes. Indeed,
and contraction with traceless removes the first term. Therefore
The power crossing the large sphere at time is consequently
The monopole is conserved total mass, the dipole is center-of-mass motion, and every term is orthogonal to the trace-free quadrupole at this leading order.

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