Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2023 / ib / Paper 4 / 7H / b / Solution

Let $h(i)$ be the probability of reaching state $3$ before state $0$. The boundary values are $h(0)=0$ and $h(3)=1$. First-step analysis at states $1$ and $2$ givesTherefore $h(1)=h(1)/4+1/4$, so the requested hitting probability is