Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2023 / ii / Paper 2 / 6C (Mathematical Biology)

This is the SIR model with waning immunity. The mass-action interaction term $\beta IS$ transfers people from the susceptible compartment to the infected compartment, $\nu I$ transfers infectives to the recovered compartment, and $fR$ returns recovered people to susceptibility as immunity wanes. Adding the equations givesso the total population $N$ is conserved.

When $f=0$ and infection is rare, $S\simeq N$ andThus $I$ initially decays if $\beta N<\nu$. Equivalently, the basic reproduction number is ${\mathcal{R}}_0=\beta N/\nu <1$, so the epidemic invasion threshold is not crossed and no epidemic occurs.

At a nontrivial equilibrium $I^{\ast }>0$, the equation $I^{\prime }=0$ givesThe equation $R^{\prime }=0$ gives $R^{\ast }=\nu I^{\ast }/f$, and conservation of population then yieldsThese values are positive precisely in the epidemic regime $\beta N>\nu$.

Eliminate $R=N-S-I$. The two-dimensional system isSet $a=\beta I^{\ast }=f(\beta N-\nu )/(f+\nu )>0$. The Jacobian matrix at the endemic equilibrium isso its eigenvalues satisfyTheir sum is $-(f+a)<0$ and their product is $a(f+\nu )>0$, proving local asymptotic stability.

The discriminant isWriting $r=\beta N-\nu >0$, we have $a=fr/(f+\nu )$. As $f\to 0^{+}$,whereas as $f\to \infty$,Hence sufficiently slow immunity loss gives a stable focus: $I(t)$ approaches $I^{\ast }$ through damped oscillations, corresponding to successively smaller epidemic waves. Sufficiently rapid immunity loss gives a stable node: small disturbances are sums of two decaying real modes and show no forced oscillation. These conclusions and the equilibrium formulas are collected in the Endemic equilibrium of the SIR model with waning immunity.