Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2023 / iii / Paper 221 / 4 / iii

LetandBecause $U$ contains all exposure-outcome confounding and $Z$ is independent of $U$, the exclusion restriction and the law of total expectation giveLikewise,The no confounder-instrument interaction assumption says $\delta (U)=\delta$ is constant. Relevance gives $\delta \ne 0$, so the Wald ratio isthe overall average treatment effect.