Fix the reference bit-flip chain
and assign to each lattice edge the bond sign
where if contains and is zero otherwise. A product of star stabilizers is specified by Ising spins : choose the star at when . The resulting error has edge occupation
For edges, its independent bit-flip probability is
because . Summing over products of stars therefore gives the Surface-code decoding as a random-bond Ising model identity
where is the number of Ising configurations representing the same stabilizer product, usually on a closed connected lattice because a global spin flip changes no bond. The class-independent prefactor cancels when the two logical classes are compared.

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