The birth-period comparison requires consistency, no interference between individuals, and a real discontinuity in sugar exposure at the end of rationing. Near the cutoff, potential diabetes outcomes must otherwise vary continuously with birth date: no simultaneous policy, nutritional, diagnostic, seasonal, or demographic discontinuity may affect them. Birth dates must not be manipulable around the cutoff, and survival and UK Biobank participation must not create differential selection bias. These assumptions make cutoff assignment locally exchangeable and give a regression discontinuity design an exclusion restriction in which birth period affects diabetes through sugar exposure.
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