Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2026 / iii / Paper 207 / 5 / b

Use each matched pair as a separate stratum with its own baseline hazard and fit one common treatment coefficient $\beta$. The Stratified Cox model partial likelihood multiplies the within-pair risk-set contributions, eliminating all pair-specific baselines. Test $H_0:\beta =0$ by the corresponding conditional score, likelihood-ratio, or Wald test.

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A pair is informative only when its first observed exit is an event while both members remain at risk; later events after one member has left contribute a factor one. The uninformative pairs are therefore pair 5, with tied events at $(17,17)$, and pairs 10, 11, and 13, whose earlier observations are censorings: $(63+,278)$, $(89+,1083+)$, and $(141,138+)$. At $(140,140+)$ both are in the risk set immediately before time 140, so pair 12 is informative.

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Among the nine informative pairs, the active patient fails first once and the placebo patient fails first eight times. The conditional partial likelihood is proportional tosoUnder $H_0$, the number of active-first failures is $\mathrm{Binomial}(9,1/2)$. The exact two-sided sign test hasso the data reject at the 5% level and favor lower hazard under active treatment.

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