Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 36 5 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For independent Poisson counts, the log-likelihood at mean vector isThe saturated model maximizes each cell separately at , including the boundary value zero. If is the fitted mean under the log-linear regression, twice the saturated-minus-fitted log-likelihood is the full Poisson deviancewith understood by continuity. The fitted intercept has score function , since differentiating the logarithmic mean with respect to that intercept gives one. Its maximum-likelihood equation therefore gives . This is why Poisson deviance simplifies when an intercept is fitted:Without the fitted unpenalized intercept, one cannot generally discard the two linear terms. The individual logarithmic terms in the simplified sum need not each be positive; nonnegativity belongs to the full deviance, or to the full cell contributions before cancellation.
For the approximation, write and expand . When relative residuals are small,Consequently the quadratic Pearson approximation to the Poisson deviance isthe Pearson chi-squared statistic for unit Poisson dispersion. Adequate expected counts and small relative residuals are what make the quadratic approximation useful; it is not an exact identity and can be poor for sparse cells, especially a zero count with positive fitted mean. Any further chi-squared goodness-of-fit reference needs its own large-count regularity assumptions.