Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 43 5 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Under equal costs for either wrong assignment, the Bayes classifier chooses the class of greatest posterior probability. With positive prior probabilities, it assigns class one when ; ties can be resolved arbitrarily. For the two multivariate normal densities with common positive-definite covariance matrix , their normalizing factors cancel. The log posterior odds areTherefore the Gaussian Bayes classifier has the required linear form, withA larger prior probability for class one decreases , expanding its decision region. The prior-dependent Gaussian discriminant boundary is the hyperplane .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 46 2 b iii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Now the prior odds are . The fitted log posterior odds are , so the Gaussian Bayes classifier assigns fattus when . The prior-dependent Gaussian discriminant boundary becomesIt moves upwards parallel to the original line by , expanding the fattus region. This is the dashed line in the sketch. The fifth individual's fitted log likelihood ratio remains zero, but its posterior odds become , giving posterior fattus probability .
The fifth individual is now classified as fattus. For completeness, the other four classifications remain apathus, fattus, apathus and fattus: their scores lie on the same side of the new threshold as before.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 46 2 b ii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Evaluating the fitted linear discriminant analysis score givesThe fifth individual lies exactly on the discriminant boundary. Its two fitted posterior probabilities are equal, so the equal-prior Bayes classifier cannot prefer either species. A specified tie convention could assign it to one species, but such an assignment would not be evidence favoring that species.
In the sketch the solid line is the equal-prior boundary. The dashed line is the prior-dependent Gaussian discriminant boundary for the altered priors in (iii).
Beetle classifications and the parallel boundary shift when fattus has twice the prior probability
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