The violated assumption is independence of random variables across observations: repeated measurements on the same rat form clustered data. A persistent rat-specific weight difference induces positive within-rat covariance, even after adjustment for time and diet. Treating all 176 measurements as independent is pseudoreplication.
For the claimed lack of identifiability in the second fit, Rat must be a categorical variable, as intended by the rat-effect interpretation. Each rat receives only one diet, so this is confounding of nested fixed factors. If is the rat-indicator column, the diet- indicator is . Thus a diet effect can be increased by and every corresponding rat effect decreased by , leaving all fitted values unchanged. With an intercept, two diet columns, fifteen rat contrasts and time, there are 19 columns but only 17 independent columns: the intercept and rat contrasts already span the diet columns, while time varies within rats. This gives rank-deficient ordinary least squares.
The first model ignores within-rat dependence; the second cannot separate unrestricted fixed diet and rat effects. If Rat were instead encoded as a single numeric predictor, the asserted rank deficiency would not follow merely from nesting.
With Control as the reference group, the fitted normal linear model has mean
Thus the control-group rate is , while the treatment-group rate is . The estimates are
and
weight units per day. The control slope has and , so there is no statistically significant evidence of weight loss over time in the control group at conventional significance levels.
The plotted regression residuals for each mouse form smooth time patterns rather than an unstructured cloud: nearby observations on the same mouse have similar residuals, and the mice also show persistent individual offsets. This is strong evidence of autocorrelation and omitted mouse-level variation. The ordinary linear model treats all 400 measurements as independent after accounting for cage, so it commits pseudoreplication and will generally underestimate the coefficient standard errors. The reported -tests and -values should therefore not be trusted. A random-intercept linear mixed model with a within-mouse correlation structure would respect the repeated-measures design.