Expected effort in a rank-order contest Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-11-05
Assume risk-neutral players have independent identically distributed atomless nonnegative values and use an increasing symmetric equilibrium in a rank-order contest with unit effort costs. Let prizes satisfy , and normalize the lowest type's equilibrium utility to zero. For descending order statistics ,
To derive it, decompose the prize vector into layers: layer gives to each of the best players. A truthful multi-unit auction implementing that allocation charges each winner , hence total . Revenue equivalence transfers its expected payment to the all-pay contest, since the interim allocation and lowest-type utility agree. Summing the layers proves the formula. The symmetry and common-value-distribution assumptions are needed to identify rank allocation from the bid ranking.
Let , so a type values a prize at . In a symmetric increasing Bayes-Nash equilibrium of this rank-order contest, a player reporting type wins when at most opponents have larger types. Its winning probability is
Here the count of opponents above has a binomial distribution. Differentiation, or the associated order statistic density, gives
Define the effort by the all-pay effort identity
This also verifies equilibrium globally. The derivative of a type 's payoff from reporting is , positive before and negative after . Thus truthful reporting is a best response. Bidding above the maximal equilibrium effort gains no additional winning probability. Type zero chooses zero effort.
By exchanging the two integrations, the expected value of total effort is
The last integral is the moment for a Beta distribution with parameters and , namely . This is the uniform-value multi-prize all-pay effort formula.
Put and . The positive constant multiplying does not affect the maximizing . Since
the assumed inequality makes nonincreasing on the feasible interval. Hence one prize maximizes expected total effort.
For the power family, the PDF gives . Then
If , this derivative is strictly negative for : the bracket is affine and its values at the endpoints are and . Thus is optimal.
If , the unique continuous maximizer is
The objective strictly increases before and decreases after it. Therefore its discrete maximizer lies among
Compare the surviving candidates using , since . If is an integer, that integer is the unique maximizer; if its floor is zero, the only feasible candidate is . This proves the discrete prize-count optimization for a power-valued contest including the endpoint cases.
The sufficient condition need only hold on . The power family is undefined at zero, so the printed endpoint cannot apply to it. More generally, a positive finite value would make the displayed inequality fail at zero. The design argument uses only positive feasible prize fractions and needs no value there.