For independent and identically distributed random variables that are integrable random variables, with , symmetry gives . The decreasing sigma-algebras generated by these future sums permit application of the reverse martingale convergence theorem.
De Finetti theorem 2026-10-14
For an infinite sequence of real exchangeable random variables, conditional on its invariant sigma-algebra of an exchangeable sequence, the coordinates are independent and identically distributed. In particular, for Borel sets ,
Here is the core proof. Let denote invariance under permutations of coordinates . Symmetrization as conditional expectation identifies the empirical average of each indicator with its conditional expectation on . The reverse martingale convergence theorem gives its limit conditional on . Multiplying the averages sums over all ordered coordinate tuples, including repetitions. Symmetrization of the product itself sums over the distinct tuples. The fraction of repeated tuples is at most , so these bounded averages have the same limit. This proves the displayed factorization. Permutation invariance also makes the individual conditional laws identical. A regular conditional distribution on the real line packages that common law as a random probability measure, giving the equivalent mixture-of-iid formulation.
For a real sequence of exchangeable random variables, every event in its invariant sigma-algebra of an exchangeable sequence agrees almost surely with an event of its tail sigma-algebra. Put . Approximate in by its conditional expectation on the first coordinates. Swap that block with the next coordinates. Invariance of and the law shows that the conditional expectation on the second block is an equally good approximation. It is measurable with respect to the tail after index . The L1 contraction of conditional expectation then bounds by twice the approximation error. The reverse martingale convergence theorem gives almost surely. Thresholding the latter at supplies the required tail event. Together with the reverse inclusion, the two sigma-algebras have identical probability completions.
Here is bounded and hence lies in as well as . Conditional expectation on a sub-sigma-algebra is the orthogonal projection in onto its measurable subspace. We can use these projections to justify both limits without any symmetry assumption on the probability measure.
The increasing coordinate sigma-algebras generate the whole product sigma-algebra . Functions depending on finitely many coordinates are dense in : their cylinder indicators generate , and the usual monotone-class approximation proves density of their linear span. If a cylinder function is -measurable, then for the projection contraction gives
Approximate arbitrarily well by such to prove the first limit.
For the decreasing tail sigma-algebras , put . If , the tower property gives . Projection orthogonality therefore yields
The norms on the right decrease and are nonnegative, so is Cauchy in and has a limit . Choose an almost-surely convergent subsequence and take its pointwise upper limit. For every fixed its tail consists of -measurable functions, so this supplies a version of measurable with respect to every , hence to . For any , ; passing to the limit identifies .
Finally on a probability space, by the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. Thus
These are the increasing-filtration and reverse martingale convergence theorem limits; the argument above establishes the requested norm convergence directly.
Let permute coordinates , fixing the later coordinates. For any integrable random variable , its group average
is invariant under this group, hence -measurable. If , invariance of and measure preservation of each give . Thus satisfies the integral definition of . This proves symmetrization as conditional expectation.
Apply it to for . Under a uniform permutation of coordinates, its selected coordinate is uniform among all of them, so
The reverse martingale convergence theorem says that, for decreasing sigma-algebras and an integrable , these conditional expectations converge almost surely and in to . Here , because every finitely supported permutation belongs to one of the finite groups. Therefore
Intersect these probability-one events for the finitely many and multiply the limits. Expanding the product of finite sums gives
The sum here includes repeated indices. No independence of the original coordinates was assumed; exchangeability and reverse conditional-expectation convergence are precisely what replaced it.
Let be the average over all coordinate tuples in part (a), and the distinct-tuple average in part (b). Every product summand lies in . A proportion , where , of all tuples have distinct coordinates. Thus
where is the average over the remaining tuples. If there are no remaining tuples, the error is zero. Hence .
For independent uniform choices from indices, any particular pair coincides with probability . A union bound over the pairs gives
This deterministic sampling with and without replacement comparison for bounded products is the needed link between the two averages.
Part (a) identifies the almost-sure limit of as . By part (b) and the reverse martingale convergence theorem, converges almost surely to . Their difference vanishes, so
This is precisely conditional independence. Exchangeability also makes the single-coordinate conditional laws identical, by applying a coordinate transposition and testing against invariant events. The result is the De Finetti theorem, established here by finite symmetrization and the vanishing collision fraction.
The sigma-algebras decrease with , and (b) gives . The permitted reverse martingale convergence theorem therefore gives an integrable random variable such that almost surely and with convergence in L1. In particular,
It remains to prove that is constant. We must not assume that is the tail sigma-algebra of the ; instead use tail measurability of limits of sample averages directly. Define the random variable valued in the extended real numbers . For every fixed ,
because pointwise. Thus is measurable with respect to for every , and hence to the tail sigma-algebra. Also almost surely.
By the Kolmogorov zero-one law, each tail event , for a rational number , has probability zero or one. Since is finite almost surely, its distribution function can only be that of a constant : taking and using the density of the rational numbers gives almost surely. Its expected value identifies . This proves the strong law of large numbers:
For a finite partition , put
The system is K-mixing when every measurable becomes uniformly asymptotically independent of this remote future:
Taking makes , so
Thus K-mixing implies mixing.
The tail sigma-algebra of a measurable partition is
By the reverse martingale convergence theorem,
in . The uniform independence in the definition of K-mixing is equivalent to the limit being the constant for every . This holds exactly when every -measurable set has measure zero or one. Hence the system is K-mixing if and only if every finite partition has trivial tail sigma-algebra.
Let . Complements preserve the binary partition. If , then is coarser than , so subadditivity gives zero entropy rate. Thus is an algebra. For , let . The entropy metric continuity bound
tends to zero because . Hence , proving that is a sigma-algebra: the Pinsker sigma-algebra.
If belongs modulo null sets to for a finite , remote-future approximations make the entropy rate of zero. Conversely, if , the conditional-entropy formula for entropy rate gives
Thus is measurable modulo null sets from its strict future. Iterating this fact makes it measurable from every remote future, so modulo null sets. Therefore
This is the Tail characterization of the Pinsker sigma-algebra.
The tail sigma-algebra of a finite partition is
By the reverse martingale convergence theorem, K-mixing is equivalent to triviality of for every finite partition .