Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 219 3 c Solution 2026-09-28
A Gibbs sampler draws each variable from its full conditional distribution, so every proposed update is accepted. At the start of a sweep define , , andFirst update the reddenings independently asRecompute and , then make the Gaussian updatesandWiththe remaining full conditionals, in the parameterization given in the question, are the scaled inverse chi-squared lawsRepeating these updates in the displayed order gives a complete Gibbs sweep. The formulas assume and nondegenerate sampled predictors; posterior propriety must be checked because the hyperpriors are improper.
Scaled inverse chi-squared distribution Created 2026-09-28 Updated 2026-11-05
For parameters and , the Scaled inverse chi-squared distribution is the law ofThe inverse change of variables gives its normalized densityIt is an Inverse-gamma distribution with shape and scale . The label is a scale parameter, not the variance of .
Its mean is for , and its variance is for . Below those respective thresholds the positive moments diverge. For example, gives mean three and variance nine.
This is a conjugate prior for the unknown variance of a Normal distribution with known mean . With prior parameters and independent observations, the posterior has and . Multiplying prior and likelihood adds their powers and inverse-variance exponents, which proves the update. An unknown estimated mean requires a separate model and changes the update.